A/B Testing Conversion Rates

Using the Beta-Binomial model, we introduce a common pattern to perform Bayesian A/B testing. There are three strong reasons to prefer Bayesian A/B testing over traditional hypothesis testing: uncertainty visualisation,...

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Bayesian Beta-Binomial Model

In this screencast, we explore one of my favourite and useful Bayesian models: the Beta-Binomial model. This model is a building block for more advanced models, and has applications in...

Bayesian Modelling (Car Arrival Problem)

I was sent this question from a reader: I have a road intersection with one entrance and two exits, A and B. My goal is to estimate the number of...

Create Markov Chains Using Your Chrome Browsing History

If you're using Chrome, Firefox or Safari, likely you have a SQLite database on your computer that your browser stores all your history: search terms, pageviews, urls visited, and when...

Determining Ages using First Name Data

In this screencast, we use open Census data, combined with some laws of probability, to derive age distributions a population. This is very useful when you have a body of...

Estimating the Hazard Function

At the heart of survival analysis is the hazard curve, which can be thought of as the amount of risk of dying at any point in time. It's the fundamental...

Estimating the Survival Function

We introduce the survival function, a core component in survival analysis, and the non-parametric estimate for it: the Kaplan-Meier curve. We explore these concepts on FBI's Most Wanted List and...

Sampling from Discrete Distributions

One common problem in implementing statistical algorithms is being able to sample from an arbitrary distribution: suppose you have N objects, each with a different probability of being chosen -...

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Why Should I Be Interested in Survival Analysis?

Survival analysis is a field that a lot of analysts and scientists overlook - it's seen as sorta unsexy. This is too bad, it's actually a really cool field, and...