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Napkin Folding — causal inference

Causal Inference & Heroes of the Storm Win Rates

Posted by Cameron Davidson-Pilon at

I've been playing the video game Heroes of the Storm by Blizzard for about 3 years now. I even attended the game's professional scene's championship last year! One part of the game that has attracted me is the constantly accumulating character roster (I'll provide a short summary of the game later in this post). This means that new characters are being added, and existing characters are being tweaked if they are too powerful or not powerful enough. It's this latter...

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Everything I need to know about causality, I learned smoking cigarettes

Posted by Cameron Davidson-Pilon at

I've gone through a causal inference revolution, and I can't go back. Causal inference is all I think about now, but unfortunately its importance is often overlooked. Part of my revolution came after reading Miguel Hernán et al's paper on infant mortality and smoking, The Birth Weight "Paradox" Uncovered?. It took me a full evening to really understand its points, and it was rewarding when I finally did. In this blog post, I'm going to examine the paper from my point of view, and add or...

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